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Economics

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This paper addresses the issue of whether covariation of long-term interest rates across G10 countries has increased in recent years and whether, as a consequence, interest rates have become less subject to the influence of national monetary authorities and domestic fundamentals. A conceptual framework based on the standard parity relations among country interest rates is described, and it is argued that historical trends in interest rates and their relations across countries can be understood reasonably well under this framework as the result of changing fundamentals and shifts in (internationally-priced) risk premia. The main empirical findings are that bilateral covariation of long-term interest rates has gone up in the 1990s among some European countries but there is no evidence of any substantial increase for countries with floating exchange rates. Variance decompositions and country-specific interest rate equations show little evidence of increasing interdependence of domestic ...

Economics

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This paper discusses the impact of government-imposed regulations on performance in the distribution sector. It first deals with the role of the distribution sector in OECD economies and gives an overview of competitive conditions in the sector. Next, it provides an overview of recent evidence concerning the impact of regulation. The paper finds that a range of regulations, including restrictions on large stores, opening hours and zoning, have slowed down structural change in the distribution sector. These regulations have sometimes reduced the efficiency of the distribution system, but have mainly limited the range of services provided to consumers ...

Economics

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This note gives a brief survey of main theoretical and empirical issues with respect to the NAIRU concept. According to modern labour market literature NAIRU is defined as the rate of unemployment at which inflation stabilises in the absence of any wage-price surprises. Conventional thinking about the equilibrium unemployment rate assumes that in the long run NAIRU is determined solely y supply side factors of the labour market. We show that quite complex adjustment dynamics may arise even in simple log-linear wage-price models. Furthermore we provide a survey on a number of “hysteresis-mechanisms” which could lead to permanent shifts of equilibrium unemployment over time, implying that an unique long run NAIRU may not even exist. In addition to theoretical issues we refer to two serious problems which might arise with empirical applications of the NAIRU concept. First various empirical studies suggest that results highly depend on model specifications. Second a considerable amount ...

Economics

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National accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview available of developments in national economies. They are of great interest to a wide range of users of economic information. These users, which include governments formulating budgetary policies, central banks making monetary policy decisions, businesses considering investment decisions and financial institutions making judgements concerning portfolio allocation, have needs which may differ in various respects. However, since their interest generally stems from the likelihood that they will make better decisions if they are well informed about economic developments, they all have a strong interest in the accuracy of national accounts statistics. This paper examines the reliability of preliminary quarterly national accounts statistics. In particular, it considers the longer-term behaviour of the provisional estimates to GDP growth and its main expenditure components through an examination of the revisions to those ...

Economics